Tale of the Tape - Flyers vs. Capitals

On the eve of the beginning of what will hopefully be a long playoff run for the Flyers, I offer a breakdown of the Flyers and Capitals and how they match up in this opening round series.

Offense: The Capitals boast perhaps the game’s most dominant offensive player in LW Alexander Ovechkin, who led the league in goals (65) and is a lock to win the Hart Trophy as the NHL MVP. Ovechkin finished with 112 points, but the Capital offense is top heavy (their second leading scorer, Nicklas Backstrom, checks in with 69 points; their third highest scorer was defenseman Mike Green).

The Flyers, meanwhile, are much more balanced. They were the only team in the league with six 20-goal scorers (Daniel Briere 31, Mike Knuble 29, Jeff Carter 29, Mike Richards 28, Scott Hartnell 24, Joffrey Lupul 20). They’ve also got Vaclav Prospal, who finished with 33 between his stints with Tampa Bay and the Flyers.

Remember the 2006 Carolina Hurricanes team that won the Cup? They had three balanced lines, each of which could produce and pick up the slack on any given night. The Flyers have that same kind of ability. Edge: Flyers.

Defense: Washington may have found a superstar in the making in Green. He averages 23 minutes a game and anchors a dangerous power play (eight of his 18 goals have come with the man advantage). Beyond Green, the Caps defense is average. As a team, Washington killed 80.5% of the power plays they faced, which ranks near the bottom of the league.

Injuries and inexperience may the biggest question marks surrounding the Flyers defense. Captain Jason Smith missed the last two games of the regular season with a shoulder injury, and Derian Hatcher is skating again but likely will not play in this series. Young guys like Braydon Coburn, Randy Jones, Lasse Kukkonen and Ryan Parent will be counted on heavily, though veteran Kimmo Timonen will likely match up with Ovechkin as often as possible. Edge: Even.

Goaltending: There are many similarities between Washington ’s Cristobal Huet and Philly’s Martin Biron. Neither has much playoff experience. Huet started six games in the 2006 post-season, going 2-4 against the Carolina Hurricanes. Biron has experienced the playoffs as a member of the Buffalo Sabres, but has done so from the confines of the back-up goalie stool on the bench. Both finished the season hot. Huet rides a nine-game winning streak into the playoffs, while Biron won five of his last seven, the last two by shutout.

Both are also very likely aware that good goaltending and long playoff runs go hand-in hand. Whichever goalie plays better will give his team a boost. Edge: Even.

Coaching: This is the initial NHL post-season appearance for the Bruce Boudreau of the Capitals and John Stevens of the Flyers, although both have coached AHL teams to Calder Cup championships.

Since taking over for Glen Hanlon at Thanksgiving, Boudreau has led the Capitals to a scorching 37-17-7 record, earning him some votes for the Jack Adams award as the NHL’s best coach. Stevens’ first full season behind the Flyer bench was a roller coaster ride that ended with the Flyers right where they should have been – in the playoffs. But the Flyers can’t afford the ups and downs that plagued them in the regular season. Consistency, night in and night out, is so key in April and May. Edge: Capitals.

Special Teams: The Flyers had the second most potent power play in the NHL, converting at 21.8%. Washington ’s penalty killing, as previously mentioned, was not exactly stellar. If Washington fails to be disciplined, the Flyers could steal goals (and games) with the man advantage. Major edge: Flyers.

Star Power: It begins and ends with Ovechkin, as evidenced by the fact that every game of this series will be televised nationally on NBC or Versus. And unless you live in my house (where my son and daughter fight over who gets to be Danny Briere when we play knee hockey in the living room), the Flyers are not loaded with household names. With that said, it would be in the best interest of the NHL for Ovechkin and the Capitals to last beyond the first round. I’m not saying the Flyers will be playing against the officials as well, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Capitals get a majority of the power play opportunities in the series. Edge: Capitals.

Home Ice: Washington has home ice advantage for the series as a result of their Southeast Division championship, but the Flyers actually had more points than the Capitals. Besides, the Flyers were one of the better road teams in the league, winning twice in Washington earlier in the season. Edge: Flyers.

Prediction: In my (admittedly biased) opinion, I think the Flyers will advance in a six games.