"With (Santana), now, I have no doubt that we're going to win in our division. So this year, to Jimmy Rollins, we are the team to beat." - New York Mets CF Carlos Beltran, circa February 2008 after Rollins proclaimed the Phillies the team to beat in the N.L. East prior to the 2007 season
Hey Carlos? Scoreboard. Do you have any doubt now? I'd say more, but that would be like piling on. Let's Go Phillies!!!
September 30, 2008
The W.W.W. - Week 4
Wow!
Brett Favre - Favre has been in the league for 16 years now, has started, like, a thousand consecutive games, and owns just about every passing record in the history of the NFL. Yet he did something on Sunday he had never done in his illustrious career. Favre threw six touchdown passes against the Cardinals in a 56-35 Jets win. Granted, the guys in the Wrangler commercial play better defense that Arizona. Still, it's a pretty remarkable achievement, especially for a 38 year old who was retired a few weeks ago.
WTF?
Andy Reid - I've had a little bit of time to cool off since Sunday, so I'll spare you the profanity-laced tirade I unleashed on my brother over the phone yesterday (sorry, Joe). I've defended Reid's questionable decision-making in the past, but the goal-line play calling against the Bears was absolutely incomprehensible.
With Brian Westbrook standing on the sideline in street clothes, Donovan McNabb is their best offensive player. So when you have to have a touchdown, why would you take the ball out of his hands? Not once, not twice, not three times, but on all four downs, they handed the ball off to either their second-string running back or fullback. How about rolling McNabb out and giving him a run-pass option? How about a play action pass? Or a QB sneak? And didn't we hear about McNabb throwing fade passes to Hank Baskett (a former NCAA high-jumper, if you need him) in training camp? Guess they left that page of the playbook in a dorm at Lehigh.
It would be hypocritical for me to call someone else too stubborn for their own good, but this one is on Reid and Reid alone. In a division as good as the NFC East, nobody can afford to give away winnable games against inferior opponents. If the Birds miss the playoffs by a game this year, which is a distinct possibility, this could be the one that sealed their fate.
Wait & See...
Brian Westbrook - His injured ankle had not progressed well enough to play Sunday, and his absence was clearly noticeable. There's a possibility he'll miss the weekend's all-important division battle against Washington. Uh-oh.
David Akers - Still automatic from inside 40 yards, Akers has struggled mightily with long field goals. The two he missed on Sunday in Chicago might have bailed out his coach's ridiculous play-calling. So is Akers in a funk, or has he jumped the shark? What's your comfort level with Akers having to bang home a 46-yard field goal with the game on the line? On second thought, I don't want to think about it.
Boom...Outta Here
A day after the Rams parted ways with head coach Scott Linehan, the Raiders followed suit by running off Lane Kiffin.
Quotable
"Everybody recognized I wasn’t getting the ball in the first half. People in the stands recognized it. I think my team recognized it...I got more involved. There is no secret, when I get the ball, things move, we move the chains. If not, you see the stagnant in our offense." - Dallas Cowboys WR Terrell Owens following a 26-24 home loss to the Washington Redskins
I thought T.O. had matured and suddenly morphed into a good teammate in Dallas. Guess not. The funny part is, he was then intended target on approximately one third of his quarterback's throws, and he got the ball on two or three sweeps. His quarterback threw to him eight times in the first half. At intermission, T.O., had two catches for 11 yards. Seems as though the problem is with the receiver, no? Maybe the Cowboys should start T.O. at center so he can touch the ball on every play. If it looks like a piece of crap, and smells like a piece of crap...well, you know the rest.
Brett Favre - Favre has been in the league for 16 years now, has started, like, a thousand consecutive games, and owns just about every passing record in the history of the NFL. Yet he did something on Sunday he had never done in his illustrious career. Favre threw six touchdown passes against the Cardinals in a 56-35 Jets win. Granted, the guys in the Wrangler commercial play better defense that Arizona. Still, it's a pretty remarkable achievement, especially for a 38 year old who was retired a few weeks ago.
WTF?
Andy Reid - I've had a little bit of time to cool off since Sunday, so I'll spare you the profanity-laced tirade I unleashed on my brother over the phone yesterday (sorry, Joe). I've defended Reid's questionable decision-making in the past, but the goal-line play calling against the Bears was absolutely incomprehensible.
With Brian Westbrook standing on the sideline in street clothes, Donovan McNabb is their best offensive player. So when you have to have a touchdown, why would you take the ball out of his hands? Not once, not twice, not three times, but on all four downs, they handed the ball off to either their second-string running back or fullback. How about rolling McNabb out and giving him a run-pass option? How about a play action pass? Or a QB sneak? And didn't we hear about McNabb throwing fade passes to Hank Baskett (a former NCAA high-jumper, if you need him) in training camp? Guess they left that page of the playbook in a dorm at Lehigh.
It would be hypocritical for me to call someone else too stubborn for their own good, but this one is on Reid and Reid alone. In a division as good as the NFC East, nobody can afford to give away winnable games against inferior opponents. If the Birds miss the playoffs by a game this year, which is a distinct possibility, this could be the one that sealed their fate.
Wait & See...
Brian Westbrook - His injured ankle had not progressed well enough to play Sunday, and his absence was clearly noticeable. There's a possibility he'll miss the weekend's all-important division battle against Washington. Uh-oh.
David Akers - Still automatic from inside 40 yards, Akers has struggled mightily with long field goals. The two he missed on Sunday in Chicago might have bailed out his coach's ridiculous play-calling. So is Akers in a funk, or has he jumped the shark? What's your comfort level with Akers having to bang home a 46-yard field goal with the game on the line? On second thought, I don't want to think about it.
Boom...Outta Here
A day after the Rams parted ways with head coach Scott Linehan, the Raiders followed suit by running off Lane Kiffin.
Quotable
"Everybody recognized I wasn’t getting the ball in the first half. People in the stands recognized it. I think my team recognized it...I got more involved. There is no secret, when I get the ball, things move, we move the chains. If not, you see the stagnant in our offense." - Dallas Cowboys WR Terrell Owens following a 26-24 home loss to the Washington Redskins
I thought T.O. had matured and suddenly morphed into a good teammate in Dallas. Guess not. The funny part is, he was then intended target on approximately one third of his quarterback's throws, and he got the ball on two or three sweeps. His quarterback threw to him eight times in the first half. At intermission, T.O., had two catches for 11 yards. Seems as though the problem is with the receiver, no? Maybe the Cowboys should start T.O. at center so he can touch the ball on every play. If it looks like a piece of crap, and smells like a piece of crap...well, you know the rest.
September 27, 2008
Magic Number = 1
A year ago this weekend, I was in New York City serving as Best Man in my brother's wedding. The Mets were in the midst of an epic collapse. Every morning, my uncle "Tsunami John" and I would grab the Daily News or New York Post and chuckle over the headlines, like this one:
Fast forward to the present and we find the Phillies on the precipice of clinching their second consecutive NL East title and securing back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time since 1980 and '81.
The Phillies defeated the Washington Nationals 8-4 last night. Coupled with the Mets' 6-1 home loss to the Florida Marlins, the Fightin' Phils have a two-game lead with two to play.
As an added bonus, the Brewers defeated the Cubs last night to earn a leg up on the Mets in the Wild Card race.
Simply put, we're basically in.
The Mets are likely out. Of the playoffs. Completely.
Guess that's why they say "Ya Gotta Bereave."
Fast forward to the present and we find the Phillies on the precipice of clinching their second consecutive NL East title and securing back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time since 1980 and '81.
The Phillies defeated the Washington Nationals 8-4 last night. Coupled with the Mets' 6-1 home loss to the Florida Marlins, the Fightin' Phils have a two-game lead with two to play.
As an added bonus, the Brewers defeated the Cubs last night to earn a leg up on the Mets in the Wild Card race.
Simply put, we're basically in.
The Mets are likely out. Of the playoffs. Completely.
Guess that's why they say "Ya Gotta Bereave."
September 25, 2008
The Week 4 Picks
Match-up: San Francisco (+5.0) @ New Orleans
Breakdown: The Saints will be without Jeremy Shockey, but should feel confident after a close call in Denver last week.
Straight up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
Match-up: Arizona (+1.5) @ New York Jets
Breakdown: Brett Favre's ankle injury appears minor enough that he should play.
Straight up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona
Match-up: Green Bay (+1.0) @ Tampa Bay
Breakdown: Brian Griese attempted 67 passes in Tampa's OT win in Chicago. That's not a good game plan against Green Bay, even with Al "P.I." Harris on the shelf.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Match-up: Atlanta (+7.0) @ Carolina
Breakdown: Rookie quarterback on the road against a decent defense...not exactly a recipe for success.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
Match-up: Cleveland (+3.5) @ Cincinnati
Breakdown: Romeo Crennel calling out Derek Anderson by giving Brady Quinn reps with the first team will accomplish one of two things. Either Anderson feels the pressure and plays like he did the first half of the '07 season, or he feels the pressure and gags like he's done so far in '08.
Straight up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland
Match-up: Houston (+7.0) @ Jacksonville
Breakdown: Hey, somebody's got to win, right?
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Tennessee
Breakdown: When the schedule came out, this looked like a 3-0 contender against a 1-2 team trying to keep its head above water. And it is, just not the way you may have expected. The Titans are perhaps the most underrated team in the league.
Straight up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
Match-up: Denver (-9.0) @ Kansas City
Breakdown: Still not completely sold on this Denver team. They should squeak out another close victory.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Kansas City
Match-up: San Diego (-7.5) @ Oakland
Breakdown: I know they're 1-2, but with the Patriots, Colts, and Jaguars reeling right now, are the Chargers the favorites in the AFC? One thing's for sure, they're the favorite this week.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
Match-up: Buffalo (-8.0) @ St. Louis
Breakdown: Lots of dissension in the ranks in St. Louis. Marc Bulger is benched in favor of Trent Green. Steven Jackson isn't happy about that. And Scott Linehan is racing Oakland's Lane Kiffin to see which coach reaches the unemployment line first.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
Match-up: Washington (+11.0) @ Dallas
Breakdown: You might think the Cowboys dominate this rivalry. Think again. Washington has actually won four of the last six in the series.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
Match-up: Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Chicago
Breakdown: Remember last season when the Bears drove 97 yards in the last minute and a half with no timeouts to score the game-winning touchdown in Philly? I do, because I was there. Hopefully the Birds remember, too.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
Match-up: Baltimore (+5.5) @ Pittsburgh
Breakdown: Pittsburgh's Willie Parker is out this week. Lucky for the Steelers, they've got a pretty good passing offense to fall back on.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
Bye: Detroit; Indianapolis; Miami; New England; New York Giants; Seattle
Week 3: 10-6-0 (.625); 5-11-0 (.313)
2008-09 Season: 26-21-0 (.553); 22-24-1 (.478)
Lifetime: 992-590-1 (.627); 784-768-31 (.505)
Breakdown: The Saints will be without Jeremy Shockey, but should feel confident after a close call in Denver last week.
Straight up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
Match-up: Arizona (+1.5) @ New York Jets
Breakdown: Brett Favre's ankle injury appears minor enough that he should play.
Straight up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona
Match-up: Green Bay (+1.0) @ Tampa Bay
Breakdown: Brian Griese attempted 67 passes in Tampa's OT win in Chicago. That's not a good game plan against Green Bay, even with Al "P.I." Harris on the shelf.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Match-up: Atlanta (+7.0) @ Carolina
Breakdown: Rookie quarterback on the road against a decent defense...not exactly a recipe for success.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
Match-up: Cleveland (+3.5) @ Cincinnati
Breakdown: Romeo Crennel calling out Derek Anderson by giving Brady Quinn reps with the first team will accomplish one of two things. Either Anderson feels the pressure and plays like he did the first half of the '07 season, or he feels the pressure and gags like he's done so far in '08.
Straight up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland
Match-up: Houston (+7.0) @ Jacksonville
Breakdown: Hey, somebody's got to win, right?
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
Match-up: Minnesota (+3.0) @ Tennessee
Breakdown: When the schedule came out, this looked like a 3-0 contender against a 1-2 team trying to keep its head above water. And it is, just not the way you may have expected. The Titans are perhaps the most underrated team in the league.
Straight up: Tennessee
Against the Spread: Tennessee
Match-up: Denver (-9.0) @ Kansas City
Breakdown: Still not completely sold on this Denver team. They should squeak out another close victory.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Kansas City
Match-up: San Diego (-7.5) @ Oakland
Breakdown: I know they're 1-2, but with the Patriots, Colts, and Jaguars reeling right now, are the Chargers the favorites in the AFC? One thing's for sure, they're the favorite this week.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
Match-up: Buffalo (-8.0) @ St. Louis
Breakdown: Lots of dissension in the ranks in St. Louis. Marc Bulger is benched in favor of Trent Green. Steven Jackson isn't happy about that. And Scott Linehan is racing Oakland's Lane Kiffin to see which coach reaches the unemployment line first.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
Match-up: Washington (+11.0) @ Dallas
Breakdown: You might think the Cowboys dominate this rivalry. Think again. Washington has actually won four of the last six in the series.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
Match-up: Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Chicago
Breakdown: Remember last season when the Bears drove 97 yards in the last minute and a half with no timeouts to score the game-winning touchdown in Philly? I do, because I was there. Hopefully the Birds remember, too.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
Match-up: Baltimore (+5.5) @ Pittsburgh
Breakdown: Pittsburgh's Willie Parker is out this week. Lucky for the Steelers, they've got a pretty good passing offense to fall back on.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
Bye: Detroit; Indianapolis; Miami; New England; New York Giants; Seattle
Week 3: 10-6-0 (.625); 5-11-0 (.313)
2008-09 Season: 26-21-0 (.553); 22-24-1 (.478)
Lifetime: 992-590-1 (.627); 784-768-31 (.505)
September 23, 2008
Richards the Ideal Choice to Captain Flyers
For the better part of his three NHL seasons, we've been told that Mike Richards is a future captain, and that he's the second coming of the greatest Flyer ever, Bobby Clarke. The Flyers opened camp on Saturday with the 23-year old Richards installed as the 17th captain in team history.
An alternate captain last season, Richards led the team in scoring (75 points) and was the unquestioned leader during the Flyers' surprise run to the Eastern Conference finals. He's perhaps the most complete player on the roster, blending offensive skill with defensive awareness. He plays the point on the power play, matches up against the opposing team's top line, and he isn't afraid to scrap it up if the situation warrants. In short, he commands the respect of everyone in the locker room.
While there are other worthy candidates on the team, including former NHL captains (Kimmo Timonen, Danny Briere) and longer-tenured Flyers (Simon Gagne), Richards is the perfect choice to take the reigns, because he personifies what it means to be a Philadelphia Flyer.
An alternate captain last season, Richards led the team in scoring (75 points) and was the unquestioned leader during the Flyers' surprise run to the Eastern Conference finals. He's perhaps the most complete player on the roster, blending offensive skill with defensive awareness. He plays the point on the power play, matches up against the opposing team's top line, and he isn't afraid to scrap it up if the situation warrants. In short, he commands the respect of everyone in the locker room.
While there are other worthy candidates on the team, including former NHL captains (Kimmo Timonen, Danny Briere) and longer-tenured Flyers (Simon Gagne), Richards is the perfect choice to take the reigns, because he personifies what it means to be a Philadelphia Flyer.
The W.W.W. - Week 3
Wow!
Ronnie Brown - Four rushing touchdowns and a touchdown pass in Miami's dismantling of the formerly unbeaten Patriots...who saw that coming? Not 75% of Yahoo! Fantasy Football owners who had him on the bench. Oops.
Joey Porter - I called him out for talking garbage on the Patriots. You know what? I was wrong. Porter backed up his words and terrorized Matt Cassell and New England in their first regular season loss since 2006.
Philadelphia Eagles Defense - A week after surrendering 41 points against Dallas, the Eagles harassed Ben Roethlisberger, sacking him eight times, forcing him into two fumbles, an interception, and an intentional grounding penalty in the end zone for a safety.
WTF?
The New England Patriots - It warrants mentioning that Bill Belichick's record as a head coach without Tom Brady as his quarterback is a pedestrian 43-58. Maybe he's not some football genius after all.
Me - Yes, I'm calling myself out. I knew the Vikings-Panthers line was a set-up last week. The undefeated Panthers were getting two and a half points at -02 Minnesota with Gus Frerotte under center seemed fishy. Still, I took Carolina and the points. How do you spell retard?
Wait and See
Brian Westbook - No explanation necessary.
Denver Broncos - Yes, they're 3-0 and Jay Cutler looks like young Elway. But they had the controversial Ed Hochuli win, and they just gave up 32 points at home to a New Orleans team playing without Marques Colston. So are they that good, or are they lucky?
Ronnie Brown - Four rushing touchdowns and a touchdown pass in Miami's dismantling of the formerly unbeaten Patriots...who saw that coming? Not 75% of Yahoo! Fantasy Football owners who had him on the bench. Oops.
Joey Porter - I called him out for talking garbage on the Patriots. You know what? I was wrong. Porter backed up his words and terrorized Matt Cassell and New England in their first regular season loss since 2006.
Philadelphia Eagles Defense - A week after surrendering 41 points against Dallas, the Eagles harassed Ben Roethlisberger, sacking him eight times, forcing him into two fumbles, an interception, and an intentional grounding penalty in the end zone for a safety.
WTF?
The New England Patriots - It warrants mentioning that Bill Belichick's record as a head coach without Tom Brady as his quarterback is a pedestrian 43-58. Maybe he's not some football genius after all.
Me - Yes, I'm calling myself out. I knew the Vikings-Panthers line was a set-up last week. The undefeated Panthers were getting two and a half points at -02 Minnesota with Gus Frerotte under center seemed fishy. Still, I took Carolina and the points. How do you spell retard?
Wait and See
Brian Westbook - No explanation necessary.
Denver Broncos - Yes, they're 3-0 and Jay Cutler looks like young Elway. But they had the controversial Ed Hochuli win, and they just gave up 32 points at home to a New Orleans team playing without Marques Colston. So are they that good, or are they lucky?
September 19, 2008
The Week 3 Picks
Match-up: Carolina (+3.5) @ Minnesota
Breakdown: How are the 0-2 Vikings, with Gus Frerotte starting in place of Tavaris Jackson, favored against a 2-0 Panthers team that gets its best player, Steve Smith, back from a two game suspension? Something fishy about this one. Reluctantly, I'll take the Panthers, but I don't feel good about it.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
Match-up: Kansas City (+5.5) @ Atlanta
Breakdown: The Chiefs are starting their third quarterback in three weeks as Tyler Thigpen takes over for Damon Huard, who took over for Brodie Croyle. No telling who gets the nod next week. Len Dawson, maybe?
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
Match-up: Miami (+12.5) @ New England
Breakdown: I was all set to take the Miami and the points until I heard Dolphins LB Joey Porter bumping his gums about how it should be easy to beat the Patriots and their back up quarterback. Now I think an agitated Patriots team will rally around Matt Cassell and beat Miami by thirty.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
Match-up: Oakland (+9.5) @ Buffalo
Breakdown: The Bills are out quickly, and with Oakland on tap this week, the Bills look like the best bet to unseat the Brady-less Patriots in the AFC East.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
Match-up: Cincinnati (+13.5) @ New York Giants
Breakdown: I have officially given up on the Bengals. Conversely, I continue to believe the Giants are flying under the radar.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
Match-up: Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Chicago
Breakdown: Brian Griese will be looking for a measure of revenge against the team that cut him in favor of Kyle Orton.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
Match-up: Houston (+5.0) @ Tennessee
Breakdown: Displaced by Hurricane Ike, the Texans haven't played in two weeks. I'm not sure if that helps them or hurts them, but I've got a feeling the game will be the distraction they need.
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
Match-up: Arizona (+3.0) @ Washington
Breakdown: The NFC East is a collective 6-2 with the only two losses coming within the division. The NFC West, meanwhile, is 3-5 all told, with the Cardinals at 2-0. Needless to say, I'm not sold on the West.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
Match-up: New Orleans (+5.5) @ Denver
Breakdown: It's funny how football karma tends to work. Given a gift last week against the Chargers, I wouldn't be surprised to see all the breaks go against the Broncos this week. Still, I can't bring myself to take the Saints on the road, even with Brandon Marshall's legal matter coming to light.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
Match-up: Detroit (+4.0) @ San Francisco
Breakdown: Mike Martz was the offensive coordinator in Detroit last season. Now he holds the same post in San Francisco, and he's got a former Lion, J.T. O'Sullivan, running the show.
Straight up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco
Match-up: St. Louis (+9.5) @ Seattle
Breakdown: The receiving corps in Seattle is so thin, they broke Koren Robinson out of incarceration and traded for Keary Colbert, and they'll both see significant playing time this week. Even worse, I think St. Louis is so bad that Seattle still wins the game.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: St. Louis
Match-up: Pittsburgh (+3.5) @ Philadelphia
Breakdown: All the reports about the Steelers not winning in Philly since 1965 are kind of misleading, since the teams don't play each other every year. I wouldn't mind seeing Ben Roethlisberger introduced to the Lincoln Financial Field turf, though.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
Match-up: Jacksonville (+5.0) @ Indianapolis
Breakdown: Both teams could use a win in this division tilt. But both teams have offensive line issues, with the Colts down three starters and the Jaguars two. With patchwork lines negatively affecting the running games, you've got to go with the better passing attack.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
Match-up: Cleveland (+2.5) @ Baltimore
Breakdown: One of these teams has to win to keep the Steelers within sight in the AFC North. Derek Anderson may have to win it to keep his job.
Straight up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland
Match-up: Dallas (-3.0) @ Green Bay
Breakdown: Maybe its just me, but I was actually encouraged by Dallas' defense on Monday. There's no way that defense is winning a Super Bowl. Or beating the Packers.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Match-up: New York Jets (+9.0) @ San Diego
Breakdown: Brett Favre called this one a "Must Win." And it is - for the Chargers.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: New York Jets
Week 2: 7-8-0 (.467); 8-6-1 (.571)
2008-09 Season: 16-15-0 (.516); 17-13-1 (.567)
Lifetime: 982-581-1 (..627); 779-757-31 (.507)
Breakdown: How are the 0-2 Vikings, with Gus Frerotte starting in place of Tavaris Jackson, favored against a 2-0 Panthers team that gets its best player, Steve Smith, back from a two game suspension? Something fishy about this one. Reluctantly, I'll take the Panthers, but I don't feel good about it.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina
Match-up: Kansas City (+5.5) @ Atlanta
Breakdown: The Chiefs are starting their third quarterback in three weeks as Tyler Thigpen takes over for Damon Huard, who took over for Brodie Croyle. No telling who gets the nod next week. Len Dawson, maybe?
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta
Match-up: Miami (+12.5) @ New England
Breakdown: I was all set to take the Miami and the points until I heard Dolphins LB Joey Porter bumping his gums about how it should be easy to beat the Patriots and their back up quarterback. Now I think an agitated Patriots team will rally around Matt Cassell and beat Miami by thirty.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
Match-up: Oakland (+9.5) @ Buffalo
Breakdown: The Bills are out quickly, and with Oakland on tap this week, the Bills look like the best bet to unseat the Brady-less Patriots in the AFC East.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo
Match-up: Cincinnati (+13.5) @ New York Giants
Breakdown: I have officially given up on the Bengals. Conversely, I continue to believe the Giants are flying under the radar.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
Match-up: Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Chicago
Breakdown: Brian Griese will be looking for a measure of revenge against the team that cut him in favor of Kyle Orton.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
Match-up: Houston (+5.0) @ Tennessee
Breakdown: Displaced by Hurricane Ike, the Texans haven't played in two weeks. I'm not sure if that helps them or hurts them, but I've got a feeling the game will be the distraction they need.
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
Match-up: Arizona (+3.0) @ Washington
Breakdown: The NFC East is a collective 6-2 with the only two losses coming within the division. The NFC West, meanwhile, is 3-5 all told, with the Cardinals at 2-0. Needless to say, I'm not sold on the West.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington
Match-up: New Orleans (+5.5) @ Denver
Breakdown: It's funny how football karma tends to work. Given a gift last week against the Chargers, I wouldn't be surprised to see all the breaks go against the Broncos this week. Still, I can't bring myself to take the Saints on the road, even with Brandon Marshall's legal matter coming to light.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
Match-up: Detroit (+4.0) @ San Francisco
Breakdown: Mike Martz was the offensive coordinator in Detroit last season. Now he holds the same post in San Francisco, and he's got a former Lion, J.T. O'Sullivan, running the show.
Straight up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco
Match-up: St. Louis (+9.5) @ Seattle
Breakdown: The receiving corps in Seattle is so thin, they broke Koren Robinson out of incarceration and traded for Keary Colbert, and they'll both see significant playing time this week. Even worse, I think St. Louis is so bad that Seattle still wins the game.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: St. Louis
Match-up: Pittsburgh (+3.5) @ Philadelphia
Breakdown: All the reports about the Steelers not winning in Philly since 1965 are kind of misleading, since the teams don't play each other every year. I wouldn't mind seeing Ben Roethlisberger introduced to the Lincoln Financial Field turf, though.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
Match-up: Jacksonville (+5.0) @ Indianapolis
Breakdown: Both teams could use a win in this division tilt. But both teams have offensive line issues, with the Colts down three starters and the Jaguars two. With patchwork lines negatively affecting the running games, you've got to go with the better passing attack.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
Match-up: Cleveland (+2.5) @ Baltimore
Breakdown: One of these teams has to win to keep the Steelers within sight in the AFC North. Derek Anderson may have to win it to keep his job.
Straight up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland
Match-up: Dallas (-3.0) @ Green Bay
Breakdown: Maybe its just me, but I was actually encouraged by Dallas' defense on Monday. There's no way that defense is winning a Super Bowl. Or beating the Packers.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Match-up: New York Jets (+9.0) @ San Diego
Breakdown: Brett Favre called this one a "Must Win." And it is - for the Chargers.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: New York Jets
Week 2: 7-8-0 (.467); 8-6-1 (.571)
2008-09 Season: 16-15-0 (.516); 17-13-1 (.567)
Lifetime: 982-581-1 (..627); 779-757-31 (.507)
September 16, 2008
The W.W.W. - Week 2
Wow!
Kurt Warner - Matt Leinart prioritizing funneling beers with college chicks over playing football has certainly been to the Cardinals' benefit. Warner completed 19 of 24 passes for 361 yards and 3 touchdowns in Arizona's rout of the Dolphins on Sunday. Warner is the biggest reason the Cards are 2-0 and looking more and more like the favorite to unseat Seattle atop the NFC West.
Aaron Rodgers - Under tremendous pressure following in the footsteps of a legend, Rodgers has been Warner-esque through two games this season, connecting on 70% of his passes, and accounting for five touchdowns (four passing, one running) for the undefeated Packers.
Brandon Marshall - If you don't think Brandon Marshall is one of the best young receivers in football, you're crazy. Marshall caught 18 balls for 166 yards and a score in Denver's gift-wrapped win over San Diego. Only Terrell Owens had more catches in a game (20) as a member of the San Francisco 49ers.
WTF?
Ed Hochuli - Hochuli cost the Chargers a victory when, on a clear fumble by Denver's Jay Cutler that was recovered by San Diego, he blew his whistle and signaled incomplete pass giving the ball back to the Broncos. Denver scored a touchdown and two point conversion to secure the win. Was it a stones call by Mike Shanahan to go for two and the win? Sure. Did San Diego have chances to stop the Broncos? Of course. But they shouldn't have been in that position. Plain and simple, the blame is on Hochuli and nobody else.
Donovan McNabb - It pains me to write this, because if such a huge McNabb fan. With the Eagles driving towards a potential game-winning score, McNabb was sacked on consecutive plays and was forced to burn his final timeout. He could have tucked it and ran on the 2nd down and thrown the ball away on the 3rd down. Doing neither put the Eagles in a 4th and long situation that resulted in the curious hook-and-ladder play that came up, I don't know, ten yards shy? But that wasn't the most head-scratching play of the night. That one belongs to...
DeSean Jackson - ...who dropped the ball at the one yard line while cruising towards his first NFL touchdown. The shame is that Jackson became only the second rookie receiver in league history to amass 100+ yards in his first two games. The milestone will be overshadowed by his premature celebration. If Jackson hasn't realized it yet, all the talent, bravado, and flamboyance in the world is worthless if you're a knucklehead. Wouldn't you agree, Freddie Mitchell?
Wait & See
2-0 Teams - You expect to see teams with Super Bowl aspirations (Dallas, Green Bay, New England, New York Giants, Pittsburgh) winning their first two. Then there are the surprise teams, like Buffalo, Carolina, and Tennessee. Are they for real?
0-2 Teams - Again, there are teams that are winless for a reason (Cincinnati, Detroit, Kansas City, Miami, St. Louis), but there are those we were led to believe would challenge for playoff berths and contend for championships that have yet to crack the win column this season. Browns fans were chanting "Super Bowl" during training camp. They're 0-2. The Vikings were supposed to ride Adrian Peterson and their defense to the promised land. Problem is, Tavaris Jackson is their quarterback. Jacksonville? Seattle? Both 0-2. They're not dead yet, as there have been 0-2 teams that have reached and won the Super Bowl. But the pressure builds a little more each game.
Kurt Warner - Matt Leinart prioritizing funneling beers with college chicks over playing football has certainly been to the Cardinals' benefit. Warner completed 19 of 24 passes for 361 yards and 3 touchdowns in Arizona's rout of the Dolphins on Sunday. Warner is the biggest reason the Cards are 2-0 and looking more and more like the favorite to unseat Seattle atop the NFC West.
Aaron Rodgers - Under tremendous pressure following in the footsteps of a legend, Rodgers has been Warner-esque through two games this season, connecting on 70% of his passes, and accounting for five touchdowns (four passing, one running) for the undefeated Packers.
Brandon Marshall - If you don't think Brandon Marshall is one of the best young receivers in football, you're crazy. Marshall caught 18 balls for 166 yards and a score in Denver's gift-wrapped win over San Diego. Only Terrell Owens had more catches in a game (20) as a member of the San Francisco 49ers.
WTF?
Ed Hochuli - Hochuli cost the Chargers a victory when, on a clear fumble by Denver's Jay Cutler that was recovered by San Diego, he blew his whistle and signaled incomplete pass giving the ball back to the Broncos. Denver scored a touchdown and two point conversion to secure the win. Was it a stones call by Mike Shanahan to go for two and the win? Sure. Did San Diego have chances to stop the Broncos? Of course. But they shouldn't have been in that position. Plain and simple, the blame is on Hochuli and nobody else.
Donovan McNabb - It pains me to write this, because if such a huge McNabb fan. With the Eagles driving towards a potential game-winning score, McNabb was sacked on consecutive plays and was forced to burn his final timeout. He could have tucked it and ran on the 2nd down and thrown the ball away on the 3rd down. Doing neither put the Eagles in a 4th and long situation that resulted in the curious hook-and-ladder play that came up, I don't know, ten yards shy? But that wasn't the most head-scratching play of the night. That one belongs to...
DeSean Jackson - ...who dropped the ball at the one yard line while cruising towards his first NFL touchdown. The shame is that Jackson became only the second rookie receiver in league history to amass 100+ yards in his first two games. The milestone will be overshadowed by his premature celebration. If Jackson hasn't realized it yet, all the talent, bravado, and flamboyance in the world is worthless if you're a knucklehead. Wouldn't you agree, Freddie Mitchell?
Wait & See
2-0 Teams - You expect to see teams with Super Bowl aspirations (Dallas, Green Bay, New England, New York Giants, Pittsburgh) winning their first two. Then there are the surprise teams, like Buffalo, Carolina, and Tennessee. Are they for real?
0-2 Teams - Again, there are teams that are winless for a reason (Cincinnati, Detroit, Kansas City, Miami, St. Louis), but there are those we were led to believe would challenge for playoff berths and contend for championships that have yet to crack the win column this season. Browns fans were chanting "Super Bowl" during training camp. They're 0-2. The Vikings were supposed to ride Adrian Peterson and their defense to the promised land. Problem is, Tavaris Jackson is their quarterback. Jacksonville? Seattle? Both 0-2. They're not dead yet, as there have been 0-2 teams that have reached and won the Super Bowl. But the pressure builds a little more each game.
September 11, 2008
The Week 2 Picks
Apologies for the short format, but tomorrow is a getaway day for me. I'm making my first (and presumably last) trips to Yankee and Shea Stadiums before they're relegated to parking garages. That said, here are the Week 2 picks.
Match-up: Tennessee (+1.0) @ Cincinnati
Breakdown: The Bengals need this one after laying an egg in Baltimore last week.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
Match-up: Green Bay (-3.0) @ Detroit
Breakdown: Potential letdown game for the Packers coming off the high of Monday night.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Match-up: New Orleans (Pick) @ Washington
Breakdown: With Marques Colston out for 4-6 weeks, Reggie Bush and Jeremy Shockey will have to step it up.
Straight up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
Match-up: Oakland (+3.5) @ Kansas City
Breakdown: Damon Huard in for Brodie Croyle may actually benefit the Chiefs.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
Match-up: Chicago (+3.0) @ Carolina
Breakdown: Two teams that defeated AFC powers on the road in Week 1.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
Match-up: New York Giants (-8.5) @ St. Louis
Breakdown: If you thought the Eagles defense gave Marc Bulger and the Rams fits, wait until the blitzing Giants get through with them.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
Match-up: Buffalo (+5.5) @ Jacksonville
Breakdown: The Jaguars will find the sledding tough against the feisty Buffalo defense. This looks like a field goal game to me.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Buffalo
Match-up: Indianapolis (-2.0) @ Minnesota
Breakdown: The old football adage says a team improves the most from Week 1 to Week 2. The Colts had better hope so. What if everybody's darlings in Minnesota open 0-2?
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
Match-up: San Francisco (+7.0) @ Seattle
Breakdown: Seattle is so thin on receivers, I heard they called Freddie Mitchell this week...OK, I totally made that up, but he may be better than what they have.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
Match-up: Atlanta (+7.0) @ Tampa Bay
Breakdown: Are the Falcons for real? Let's see what happens when they take their show on the road.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
Match-up: Miami (+6.5) @ Arizona
Breakdown: The Dolphins gave it a valiant effort against the rival Jets a week ago only to come up short. Arizona, meanwhile, was the only NFC West team to actually win.
Straight up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona
Match-up: San Diego (-1.5) @ Denver
Breakdown: This line tells me how much Vegas devalues the Broncos win over Oakland. Crippling blow for the Chargers losing Shawne Merriman, even if we all knew it was coming.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
Match-up: Baltimore (+4.5) @ Houston
Breakdown: This game has been postpones to Monday due to Hurricane Ike approaching the Texas coast.
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
Match-up: New England (+1.5) @ New York Jets
Breakdown: We've seen this before. Would it really shock the world if the Patriots rose above the Brady injury and won this game?
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
Match-up: Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Cleveland
Breakdown: Got to love these rivalry games, fueled by hatred and mutual respect.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
Match-up: Philadelphia (+7.0) @ Dallas
Breakdown: Got to love these rivalry games, fueled by hatred and...more hatred.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
Week 1: 9-7-0 (.563); 9-7-0 (.563)
2008-09 Season: 9-7-0 (.563); 9-7-0 (.563)
Lifetime: 975-576-1 (.629); 771-751-30 (.507)
Match-up: Tennessee (+1.0) @ Cincinnati
Breakdown: The Bengals need this one after laying an egg in Baltimore last week.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
Match-up: Green Bay (-3.0) @ Detroit
Breakdown: Potential letdown game for the Packers coming off the high of Monday night.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Match-up: New Orleans (Pick) @ Washington
Breakdown: With Marques Colston out for 4-6 weeks, Reggie Bush and Jeremy Shockey will have to step it up.
Straight up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
Match-up: Oakland (+3.5) @ Kansas City
Breakdown: Damon Huard in for Brodie Croyle may actually benefit the Chiefs.
Straight up: Kansas City
Against the Spread: Kansas City
Match-up: Chicago (+3.0) @ Carolina
Breakdown: Two teams that defeated AFC powers on the road in Week 1.
Straight up: Chicago
Against the Spread: Chicago
Match-up: New York Giants (-8.5) @ St. Louis
Breakdown: If you thought the Eagles defense gave Marc Bulger and the Rams fits, wait until the blitzing Giants get through with them.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
Match-up: Buffalo (+5.5) @ Jacksonville
Breakdown: The Jaguars will find the sledding tough against the feisty Buffalo defense. This looks like a field goal game to me.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Buffalo
Match-up: Indianapolis (-2.0) @ Minnesota
Breakdown: The old football adage says a team improves the most from Week 1 to Week 2. The Colts had better hope so. What if everybody's darlings in Minnesota open 0-2?
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
Match-up: San Francisco (+7.0) @ Seattle
Breakdown: Seattle is so thin on receivers, I heard they called Freddie Mitchell this week...OK, I totally made that up, but he may be better than what they have.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
Match-up: Atlanta (+7.0) @ Tampa Bay
Breakdown: Are the Falcons for real? Let's see what happens when they take their show on the road.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay
Match-up: Miami (+6.5) @ Arizona
Breakdown: The Dolphins gave it a valiant effort against the rival Jets a week ago only to come up short. Arizona, meanwhile, was the only NFC West team to actually win.
Straight up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona
Match-up: San Diego (-1.5) @ Denver
Breakdown: This line tells me how much Vegas devalues the Broncos win over Oakland. Crippling blow for the Chargers losing Shawne Merriman, even if we all knew it was coming.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
Match-up: Baltimore (+4.5) @ Houston
Breakdown: This game has been postpones to Monday due to Hurricane Ike approaching the Texas coast.
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston
Match-up: New England (+1.5) @ New York Jets
Breakdown: We've seen this before. Would it really shock the world if the Patriots rose above the Brady injury and won this game?
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
Match-up: Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Cleveland
Breakdown: Got to love these rivalry games, fueled by hatred and mutual respect.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
Match-up: Philadelphia (+7.0) @ Dallas
Breakdown: Got to love these rivalry games, fueled by hatred and...more hatred.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
Week 1: 9-7-0 (.563); 9-7-0 (.563)
2008-09 Season: 9-7-0 (.563); 9-7-0 (.563)
Lifetime: 975-576-1 (.629); 771-751-30 (.507)
September 9, 2008
The W.W.W. - Week 1
I was searching for some kind of gimmick to wrap up the week in the NFL, but all the catchy football-related names are taken and, quite frankly, played out. How many "Tuesday Morning Quarterbacks" can there be? Anyway, I settled on "The W.W.W."
The W.W.W. is comprised of three sections: "Wow!" highlights impressive individual and team performances from the week; "WTF?" discusses those who failed to live up to expectations; and "Wait and See" is reserved for those who may not be as good (or bad) as they played.
Wow!
Carolina Panthers - I'm not sure what impressed me more, the fact that the Panthers drove the length of the field to score the game-winning touchdown on the final play of the game or the fact that they did so in San Diego against what was widely considered to be one of the best defenses in the league. It should also be mentioned that they did it all with their best player sitting at home serving the first game of his two-game suspension.
Chicago Bears - They looked like the Bears of two years ago with an efficient ball-control offense and an aggressive, swarming defense that absolutely overwhelmed the Indianapolis Colts at brand new Lucas Oil Stadium. More on the Colts in a minute.
Michael Turner - The former back-up to LaDanian Tomlinson in San Diego, Turner scored a big free-agent contract from the Atlanta Falcons and paid dividends in the form of 220 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Falcons opened the Mike Smith era by crushing the Detroit Lions (my sleeper team, it appears, is still asleep).
Aaron Rodgers - Rodgers performed admirably under the intense pressure cast over him by Brett Favre's shadow and the Packers opened the 2008 campaign with a big win on a national stage.
WTF?
Seattle Seahawks - Seriously, I picked them to be in the NFC Championship game? They got really old really fast and were absolutely embarrassed in Buffalo. Adding injury to insult, they lost Nate Burleson for the season with a knee injury. Suddenly the Arizona Cardinals are looking pretty good in the West.
Cincinnati Bengals - An offense featuring pro-bowlers like Carson Palmer, Chad Ocho Cinco, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh only managing to roll up 154 yards and three points in losing to rookie Joe Flacco and the Ravens.
Chad Ocho Cinco - Johnson's line: 1 catch, 22 yards, no scores, and no "Ocho Cinco" on the back of the jersey. Which, if you think about it, was pretty symbolic since he didn't show up.
Wait and See
Philadelphia Eagles - The Rams are a bottom-tier team, but the Eagles looked phenomenal in all three phases of the game. It will be interesting to see what happens against the Cowboys in Dallas on Monday.
Pittsburgh Steelers - The western part of Pennsylvania also represented itself well, and the Steelers have to feel good about their chances in light of the Tom Brady injury. But again, Houston isn't exactly the '85 Bears. The Steelers are undoubtedly good, but are they this good? Time will tell.
Indianapolis Colts - Losing at home wasn't the way the Colts envisioned breaking in their new digs, but it wasn't crippling when you consider that Jacksonville and Houston also lost and Tennessee will be without Vince Young for a few weeks. Peyton Manning also took as many snaps in the pre-season as I did. I'm sure he'll be Peyton Manning again before too long.
Denver Broncos - The Broncos looked good in what was the equivalent of a fifth pre-season game against the woeful Raiders. Denver hosts San Diego this week, so we should know a little more about them in a week's time.
Parting Shots
To the Patriot fans trying to talk themselves into their Super Bowl possibilities with Matt Cassell at quarterback under the "Tom Brady was a back-up once," I wouldn't expect lightning to strike twice.
To Shawne Merriman, who valiantly or foolishly attempted to play through torn knee ligaments but was placed on injured reserve today. Whether or not he made the right decision, surgery was the impending outcome.
And finally, to Dallas Cowboys cornerback and convicted felon Adam "Pacman" Jones, who was asked for his assessment of the Eagles, who the Cowboys host in Week 2. Jones' response: "They played the Rams, dude." Hopefully all the Cowboys are taking the Eagles lightly. And if there's any justice, as DeSean Jackson is streaking past Jones on his way to the end zone, he'll be glossed with a new 80's video game name: "Pitfall."
The W.W.W. is comprised of three sections: "Wow!" highlights impressive individual and team performances from the week; "WTF?" discusses those who failed to live up to expectations; and "Wait and See" is reserved for those who may not be as good (or bad) as they played.
Wow!
Carolina Panthers - I'm not sure what impressed me more, the fact that the Panthers drove the length of the field to score the game-winning touchdown on the final play of the game or the fact that they did so in San Diego against what was widely considered to be one of the best defenses in the league. It should also be mentioned that they did it all with their best player sitting at home serving the first game of his two-game suspension.
Chicago Bears - They looked like the Bears of two years ago with an efficient ball-control offense and an aggressive, swarming defense that absolutely overwhelmed the Indianapolis Colts at brand new Lucas Oil Stadium. More on the Colts in a minute.
Michael Turner - The former back-up to LaDanian Tomlinson in San Diego, Turner scored a big free-agent contract from the Atlanta Falcons and paid dividends in the form of 220 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Falcons opened the Mike Smith era by crushing the Detroit Lions (my sleeper team, it appears, is still asleep).
Aaron Rodgers - Rodgers performed admirably under the intense pressure cast over him by Brett Favre's shadow and the Packers opened the 2008 campaign with a big win on a national stage.
WTF?
Seattle Seahawks - Seriously, I picked them to be in the NFC Championship game? They got really old really fast and were absolutely embarrassed in Buffalo. Adding injury to insult, they lost Nate Burleson for the season with a knee injury. Suddenly the Arizona Cardinals are looking pretty good in the West.
Cincinnati Bengals - An offense featuring pro-bowlers like Carson Palmer, Chad Ocho Cinco, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh only managing to roll up 154 yards and three points in losing to rookie Joe Flacco and the Ravens.
Chad Ocho Cinco - Johnson's line: 1 catch, 22 yards, no scores, and no "Ocho Cinco" on the back of the jersey. Which, if you think about it, was pretty symbolic since he didn't show up.
Wait and See
Philadelphia Eagles - The Rams are a bottom-tier team, but the Eagles looked phenomenal in all three phases of the game. It will be interesting to see what happens against the Cowboys in Dallas on Monday.
Pittsburgh Steelers - The western part of Pennsylvania also represented itself well, and the Steelers have to feel good about their chances in light of the Tom Brady injury. But again, Houston isn't exactly the '85 Bears. The Steelers are undoubtedly good, but are they this good? Time will tell.
Indianapolis Colts - Losing at home wasn't the way the Colts envisioned breaking in their new digs, but it wasn't crippling when you consider that Jacksonville and Houston also lost and Tennessee will be without Vince Young for a few weeks. Peyton Manning also took as many snaps in the pre-season as I did. I'm sure he'll be Peyton Manning again before too long.
Denver Broncos - The Broncos looked good in what was the equivalent of a fifth pre-season game against the woeful Raiders. Denver hosts San Diego this week, so we should know a little more about them in a week's time.
Parting Shots
To the Patriot fans trying to talk themselves into their Super Bowl possibilities with Matt Cassell at quarterback under the "Tom Brady was a back-up once," I wouldn't expect lightning to strike twice.
To Shawne Merriman, who valiantly or foolishly attempted to play through torn knee ligaments but was placed on injured reserve today. Whether or not he made the right decision, surgery was the impending outcome.
And finally, to Dallas Cowboys cornerback and convicted felon Adam "Pacman" Jones, who was asked for his assessment of the Eagles, who the Cowboys host in Week 2. Jones' response: "They played the Rams, dude." Hopefully all the Cowboys are taking the Eagles lightly. And if there's any justice, as DeSean Jackson is streaking past Jones on his way to the end zone, he'll be glossed with a new 80's video game name: "Pitfall."
September 6, 2008
The Week 1 Picks
In the middle of the 2001-02 NFL Season, I stumbled across a column in USA Today where a guy named Pete O'Brien predicted that weekend's games. I disagreed with most of his picks, so I kept track of my picks and staged my own little competition with this "Expert" for the remainder of the season. Needless to say, I crushed him. I've been picking every game every week ever since.
So now, I enter my seventh season of publishing my own "Expert" picks, and do so with the following disclaimers:
1. The picks are for entertainment purposes only. If you choose to wager money or anything else of value based on my predictions, I am not responsible.
2. If, on the other hand, you profit from my prognostication, I will accept kick-backs.
3. There are no gimmicks with my picks. I don't have a "Lock of the Week," or an "Upset Special." I feel all of my picks are locks, and will only pick an upset if I feel one is justified.
4. I will ALWAYS pick the Philadelphia Eagles to win and cover, regardless of opponent, location, or spread. It's just what I do.
5. Conversely, I will NEVER pick the Dallas Cowboys to win or cover, regardless of opponent, location, or spread.
The 2008-09 campaign opened on a positive note, with the Giants defeating the Redskins on Thursday and covering the four-point spread. Without further ado, here are the rest of the Week 1 Picks:
Match-up: St. Louis (+7.5) @ Philadelphia
Breakdown: A healthy Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook should be enough to compensate for a depleted wide receiver corps.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
Match-up: Houston (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh
Breakdown: Not surprisingly, the Steelers are 3-0 in their last three season openers. Make that 4-0.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
Match-up: Detroit (-3.0) @ Atlanta
Breakdown: Surprisingly, the Lions are also 3-0 in their last three openers.
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
Match-up: Seattle (+1.0) @ Buffalo
Breakdown: I wavered on this game quite a bit. On one hand, I like Buffalo because Matt Hasselbeck has been dealing with a bad back, and the Seahawks don’t have a good history on the road. But something in my gut kept telling me to take Seattle, and more often than not I tend to trust my gut.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
Match-up: Cincinnati (-1.5) @ Baltimore
Breakdown: I’m guessing Ocho CInco isn’t hurt as bad as originally expected. And he always seems to play his best against the division-rival Ravens.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
Match-up: Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Tennessee
Breakdown: Tom Brady led the league in passer rating last year, Ben Roethlisberger was second. Know who was third? Peyton Manning? Nope. Tony Romo? Try again. Rex Grossman? No, seriously. It was David Garrard. No wonder everyone loves the Jaguars this season.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
Match-up: New York Jets (-3.0) @ Miami
Breakdown: The Jets are 7-1 in their last eight games against Miami, none of them with a Hall of Famer like Brett Favre under center.
Straight up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
Match-up: Kansas City (Off) @ New England
Breakdown: Did you really expect Tom Brady to miss a game? Would this one be closer if he didn’t?
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
Match-up: Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ New Orleans
Breakdown: The Saints have some experience dealing with displacement due to hurricanes. I don’t think they’ll be affected by Gustav, which just passed through Louisiana.
Straight up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
Match-up: Carolina (+9.0) @ San Diego
Breakdown: After learning that two of San Diego’s starting offensive linemen were going to miss this game, I leaned a little more towards Carolina, at least to keep it close. But without Steve Smith, I don’t see the Panthers winning this game.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
Match-up: Arizona (-2.5) @ San Francisco
Breakdown: It’s the dawn of the J.T. O’Sullivan era in San Francisco. Can you feel the excitement? Me neither.
Straight up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona
Match-up: Dallas (-5.5) @ Cleveland
Breakdown: Last time T.O. played in Cleveland, they hung a sign that read “T.O. has B.O.” Hopefully there’s a rhyming sign for Tony Romo this week.
Straight up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland
Match-up: Chicago (+9.5) @ Indianapolis
Breakdown: Peyton Manning is fine. Marvin Harrison is fine. Dwight Freeney and Bob Sanders are fine. With that in mind, I’d say the Colts will be fine.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
Match-up: Minnesota (+2.5) @ Green Bay
Breakdown: Not sure if you heard or not, but Brett Favre doesn’t play in Green Bay anymore, and this is the first start in Aaron Rodgers’ career.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Match-up: Denver (-3.0) @ Oakland
Breakdown: In what may be the longest-term rebuilding program in NFL history, the Raiders are 19-61 in their last five seasons. There actually are some pieces in place, but the puzzle is still incomplete.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
Week 1: 1-0-0 (1.000); 1-0-0 (1.000)
2008-09 Season: 1-0-0 (1.000); 1-0-0 (1.000)
Lifetime: 967-569-1 (.630); 763-744-30 (.506)
So now, I enter my seventh season of publishing my own "Expert" picks, and do so with the following disclaimers:
1. The picks are for entertainment purposes only. If you choose to wager money or anything else of value based on my predictions, I am not responsible.
2. If, on the other hand, you profit from my prognostication, I will accept kick-backs.
3. There are no gimmicks with my picks. I don't have a "Lock of the Week," or an "Upset Special." I feel all of my picks are locks, and will only pick an upset if I feel one is justified.
4. I will ALWAYS pick the Philadelphia Eagles to win and cover, regardless of opponent, location, or spread. It's just what I do.
5. Conversely, I will NEVER pick the Dallas Cowboys to win or cover, regardless of opponent, location, or spread.
The 2008-09 campaign opened on a positive note, with the Giants defeating the Redskins on Thursday and covering the four-point spread. Without further ado, here are the rest of the Week 1 Picks:
Match-up: St. Louis (+7.5) @ Philadelphia
Breakdown: A healthy Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook should be enough to compensate for a depleted wide receiver corps.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia
Match-up: Houston (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh
Breakdown: Not surprisingly, the Steelers are 3-0 in their last three season openers. Make that 4-0.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh
Match-up: Detroit (-3.0) @ Atlanta
Breakdown: Surprisingly, the Lions are also 3-0 in their last three openers.
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit
Match-up: Seattle (+1.0) @ Buffalo
Breakdown: I wavered on this game quite a bit. On one hand, I like Buffalo because Matt Hasselbeck has been dealing with a bad back, and the Seahawks don’t have a good history on the road. But something in my gut kept telling me to take Seattle, and more often than not I tend to trust my gut.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle
Match-up: Cincinnati (-1.5) @ Baltimore
Breakdown: I’m guessing Ocho CInco isn’t hurt as bad as originally expected. And he always seems to play his best against the division-rival Ravens.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati
Match-up: Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Tennessee
Breakdown: Tom Brady led the league in passer rating last year, Ben Roethlisberger was second. Know who was third? Peyton Manning? Nope. Tony Romo? Try again. Rex Grossman? No, seriously. It was David Garrard. No wonder everyone loves the Jaguars this season.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville
Match-up: New York Jets (-3.0) @ Miami
Breakdown: The Jets are 7-1 in their last eight games against Miami, none of them with a Hall of Famer like Brett Favre under center.
Straight up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets
Match-up: Kansas City (Off) @ New England
Breakdown: Did you really expect Tom Brady to miss a game? Would this one be closer if he didn’t?
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England
Match-up: Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ New Orleans
Breakdown: The Saints have some experience dealing with displacement due to hurricanes. I don’t think they’ll be affected by Gustav, which just passed through Louisiana.
Straight up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans
Match-up: Carolina (+9.0) @ San Diego
Breakdown: After learning that two of San Diego’s starting offensive linemen were going to miss this game, I leaned a little more towards Carolina, at least to keep it close. But without Steve Smith, I don’t see the Panthers winning this game.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego
Match-up: Arizona (-2.5) @ San Francisco
Breakdown: It’s the dawn of the J.T. O’Sullivan era in San Francisco. Can you feel the excitement? Me neither.
Straight up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona
Match-up: Dallas (-5.5) @ Cleveland
Breakdown: Last time T.O. played in Cleveland, they hung a sign that read “T.O. has B.O.” Hopefully there’s a rhyming sign for Tony Romo this week.
Straight up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland
Match-up: Chicago (+9.5) @ Indianapolis
Breakdown: Peyton Manning is fine. Marvin Harrison is fine. Dwight Freeney and Bob Sanders are fine. With that in mind, I’d say the Colts will be fine.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis
Match-up: Minnesota (+2.5) @ Green Bay
Breakdown: Not sure if you heard or not, but Brett Favre doesn’t play in Green Bay anymore, and this is the first start in Aaron Rodgers’ career.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay
Match-up: Denver (-3.0) @ Oakland
Breakdown: In what may be the longest-term rebuilding program in NFL history, the Raiders are 19-61 in their last five seasons. There actually are some pieces in place, but the puzzle is still incomplete.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver
Week 1: 1-0-0 (1.000); 1-0-0 (1.000)
2008-09 Season: 1-0-0 (1.000); 1-0-0 (1.000)
Lifetime: 967-569-1 (.630); 763-744-30 (.506)
September 4, 2008
The Pick - Redskins @ Giants
Coming soon, the 2008 NFL Season Preview. Shortly thereafter, the Week 1 NFL Picks. Until, here's how I see the NFL opener tonight:
Match-up: Washington (+4.0) @ New York Giants
Breakdown: True, the Giants were better on the road than at home last season. Also true, their championship-caliber defense has been negatively impacted by injury, retirement, and attrition due to free agency. But since the league started the tradition of the Super Bowl champion kicking off the subsequent season on a Thursday night, the title holders are 5-0 straight up and 4-0-1 against the spread. That's a trend I can't ignore.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
Match-up: Washington (+4.0) @ New York Giants
Breakdown: True, the Giants were better on the road than at home last season. Also true, their championship-caliber defense has been negatively impacted by injury, retirement, and attrition due to free agency. But since the league started the tradition of the Super Bowl champion kicking off the subsequent season on a Thursday night, the title holders are 5-0 straight up and 4-0-1 against the spread. That's a trend I can't ignore.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants
2008 NFL Season Preview
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles* - The Eagles have a healthy Donovan McNabb, an elite running back in Brian Westbrook, and an emerging star in DeSean Jackson. They've also got an underrated defense and, if the exhibition season was any indication, improved special teams. Throw in a veteran coaching staff and you've got all the pieces in place. (Note: To all you naysayers out there, I know I'm a homer. Just let me sip my Eagles Green Kool Aid and keep believing what I just wrote).
New York Giants* - The World Champions are playing the Rodney Dangerfield "No respect" card. Maybe they weren't exactly a fluke last year, but their defense carried them to the championship, and their defense is not as good this season. The scheme may be the same, but with Michael Strahan in the broadcast booth and Osi Umienyora on crutches, the execution will suffer. If only they could play 16 road games...
Washington Redskins - New season, new coach, new offensive coordinator, new offensive system, new President. Is anything the same in Washington? Eventually, it may dawn on Daniel Snyder that constantly tinkering leads to setbacks, whereas continuity benefits everyone.
Dallas Cowboys - They suck.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers* - The Brett Favre soap opera notwithstanding, the Packers are still a very talented team on both sides of the ball. And it's not like Aaron Rodgers is, I don't know, Kyle Boller? Green Bay should still be considered a contender in the NFC and should win the North going away.
Minnesota Vikings - Best defense in the league? Check. Great running game? Check. Shaky quarterback and mediocre receivers? Check. Ladies and gentlemen, the 2005 Chicago Bears! Hey, that formula got the Bears to the Super Bowl, and this is a copycat league. But the duplicate version is never as good as the original. Same holds true here.
Detroit Lions - Shhh. This team might actually not be too bad. Jon Kitna likes to chuck it around, and he's got a couple of stud receivers in Roy Wiliams and Calvin Johnson. They just added Bengals cast-off Rudi Johnson to pair with rookie Kevin Smith. I've called this team a sleeper before, and I'll do it again. Eventually, they have to wake up, right? Right?
Chicago Bears - Kyle Orton beat out Rex Grossman for the starting quarterback job in Chicago...I can't even think of a joke here.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints* - The Saints offense is loaded, especially if Deuce McAllister comes back and takes some (or all) of the rushing load off of Reggie Bush. The problems in New Orleans exist on defense. An average defense coupled with the offense they possess could take them a long way. Therein lies the dilemma.
Carolina Panthers* - Regrettably, an 0-16 Panthers season seems unlikely. Jake Delhomme is healthy again, they've got a good running game with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and when Steve Smith isn't sucker-punching his teammates, he's a pretty damn good receiver. Julius Peppers is in a contract year, meaning he'll be motivated and return to his old form. The Panthers should contend for the division, but at the very least are in the top six in the NFC.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Yes they were in the playoffs a year ago, kind of by default as the rest of the South went into the tank. The Bucs won't have the same luxury this year. Boy, it's a good thing Jon Gruden won that Championship with Tony Dungy's team a few years back, or he'd really be on the hot seat.
Atlanta Falcons - Still a few years away from completely digging out of the mess left behind by Mike Con-Vick-t and Bobby Petrino, but at least headed in the right direction with Matt Ryan. But there's still a lot of damage control to be done.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks* - It would really be a surprise if anyone besides Seattle came out of the West. Funny thing is, they're actually one of the better teams in the NFC that nobody ever talks about.
Arizona Cardinals - Between former MVP Kurt Warner, first round pick Matt Leinart, and stud receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, you'd think Arizona would be a lock for the post-season, a place they haven't been since the Jake Plummer administration. Close, but no cigar. Remember this name - Tim Hightower. And no, he's not the guy from the "Police Academy" movies.
St. Louis Rams - Lots of negative karma surrounding the Rams. Marc Bulger can't seem to stay healthy, and Torry Holt, consistent as he's been, is yet another year older. Steven Jackson held out for most of camp but was rewarded with a new contract. The Rams can rebuild around him, and should start doing so right now.
San Francisco 49ers - J.T. O'Sullivan beat out Alex Smith for the starting quarterback job in San Francisco...Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman think that's pretty jacked up.
AFC East
New England Patriots* - What do 18 wins and one loss get you? If you're the 2007 New England Patriots, it gets you labeled "chokers." It also makes you motivated to prove your worth. Of course, the Patriots won't be undefeated this year. But they're a safe bet to still be playing in January.
New York Jets - Even before they landed Favre, the Jets had reshaped their roster and were looking more like the 10-6 team they were two years ago than the 4-12 club of last season. Favre has everybody in New York talking playoffs.
Buffalo Bills - You know who's hard to gauge? The Bills. Did you realize they were 7-9 last season? Could they be that good again? If so, it will be because of Marshawn Lynch, who is a much better back than I thought he'd be.
Miami Dolphins - When you're 1-15, there's only one way to go. Bill Parcells is tasked with turning the Dolphins around, but this will not be one of his quick-fix jobs.
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers* - For all the hype surrounding the Cleveland Browns this season, its actually the Steelers who will rule the AFC North. Their schedule is brutal no doubt, with the Giants, Colts, Chargers and Cowboys coming to town and trips to Philly, Jacksonville, and New England also on the itinerary. If they can get through that mine field, the playoffs should seem like a walk in the park.
Cleveland Browns* - Call me a skeptic, but I'm still not sold on Derek Anderson. Maybe its because I'm a Notre Dame fan and want to see Brady Quinn in there. Something in my gut tells me Quinn will see the field this season, and not in Week 17 mop up duty.
Cincinnati Bengals - To be honest, I'm not sure why Chad Johnson changed his name to "Chad Javon Ocho Cinco." I can only hope it leads to their other receiver legally changing his name to T.J. Hoochiemama. That's really all I'll be watching the Bengals for this season.
Baltimore Ravens - Injuries to Kyle Boller (on IR with a bad shoulder) and Willis McGahee (recovering from a knee injury) mean rookies Joe Flacco and Ray Rice should figure prominently in the Ravens offense. In the immortal words of Carl Lewis..."Uh-oh!"
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts* - Reports out of Indianapolis indicate that Peyton Manning will be ready to start the season despite missing the entire pre-season recovering from knee surgery. They'd better hope so. If he's 100% and Marvin Harrison comes back and Bob Sanders and Dwight Freeney can both stay healthy, there aren't a lot of teams that can match the Colts' talent.
Jacksonville Jaguars* - The Jaguars are everybody's AFC dark horse team, and they are certainly worthy of consideration. But they're also not without their issues, most of them off the field. Wide receiver Matt Jones got arrested for cocaine possession during the off-season, and recently offensive lineman Richard Collier was shot in an attempted robbery or carjacking. Sometimes the off-field stuff negatively impacts the team. I'm not saying, I'm just saying.
Houston Texans - Still think the Saints and Titans got the better part of the Mario Williams/Reggie Bush.Vince Young draft class of 2006? Criticized for drafting Williams by basically everyone (including yours truly), the Texans have revamped the defense around Williams, and added some offensive firepower in Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson as well. It's a shame they'll be looking up at Indy and Jacksonville.
Tennessee Titans - Another defense first team that can and will frustrate a lot of the offenses they'll face. But if the Titans are going anywhere, Vince Young has to make "the leap." Jeff Fisher is still one of the best coaches in the league, but never gets mentioned in the Bill Belichick-Tony Dungy class.
AFC West
San Diego Chargers - Last year the Chargers earned some measure of redemption by advancing to the AFC Championship game a year after flaming out in the first round. They kept that game with the Patriots surprisingly close even without LaDanian Tomlinson and Philip Rivers playing on a torn ACL. That's how talented the Chargers are.
Denver Broncos - The Broncos are the second banana in what really appears to be a bad division. They won't challenge San Diego and if they finish behind the Chiefs or Raiders, Mike Shanahan should resign on the spot.
Kansas City Chiefs - Overheard at my Fantasy Football draft last night: "Who's Kansas City's second receiver behind Dwayne Bowe?...who the hell is Jeff Webb?" That about sums up the Chiefs this season.
Oakland Raiders - Stop me if you've heard this already, but Darren McFadden looks like he could be this year's Adrian Peterson. That would be music to JaMarcus Russell's ears.
NFC Championship: Philadelphia over Seattle
AFC Championship: San Diego over Indianapolis
Super Bowl XLIII: Philadelphia over San Diego - If you're surprised, you're obviously new to this. Year in and year out, I pick the Eagles to win it all under the "Even a broken clock is right twice a day" philosophy. Just because it hasn't happened in my lifetime doesn't mean it won't.
Most Valuable Player: Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia
Coach of the Year: Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh
Rookie of the Year: Chris Johnson, Tennessee
Philadelphia Eagles* - The Eagles have a healthy Donovan McNabb, an elite running back in Brian Westbrook, and an emerging star in DeSean Jackson. They've also got an underrated defense and, if the exhibition season was any indication, improved special teams. Throw in a veteran coaching staff and you've got all the pieces in place. (Note: To all you naysayers out there, I know I'm a homer. Just let me sip my Eagles Green Kool Aid and keep believing what I just wrote).
New York Giants* - The World Champions are playing the Rodney Dangerfield "No respect" card. Maybe they weren't exactly a fluke last year, but their defense carried them to the championship, and their defense is not as good this season. The scheme may be the same, but with Michael Strahan in the broadcast booth and Osi Umienyora on crutches, the execution will suffer. If only they could play 16 road games...
Washington Redskins - New season, new coach, new offensive coordinator, new offensive system, new President. Is anything the same in Washington? Eventually, it may dawn on Daniel Snyder that constantly tinkering leads to setbacks, whereas continuity benefits everyone.
Dallas Cowboys - They suck.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers* - The Brett Favre soap opera notwithstanding, the Packers are still a very talented team on both sides of the ball. And it's not like Aaron Rodgers is, I don't know, Kyle Boller? Green Bay should still be considered a contender in the NFC and should win the North going away.
Minnesota Vikings - Best defense in the league? Check. Great running game? Check. Shaky quarterback and mediocre receivers? Check. Ladies and gentlemen, the 2005 Chicago Bears! Hey, that formula got the Bears to the Super Bowl, and this is a copycat league. But the duplicate version is never as good as the original. Same holds true here.
Detroit Lions - Shhh. This team might actually not be too bad. Jon Kitna likes to chuck it around, and he's got a couple of stud receivers in Roy Wiliams and Calvin Johnson. They just added Bengals cast-off Rudi Johnson to pair with rookie Kevin Smith. I've called this team a sleeper before, and I'll do it again. Eventually, they have to wake up, right? Right?
Chicago Bears - Kyle Orton beat out Rex Grossman for the starting quarterback job in Chicago...I can't even think of a joke here.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints* - The Saints offense is loaded, especially if Deuce McAllister comes back and takes some (or all) of the rushing load off of Reggie Bush. The problems in New Orleans exist on defense. An average defense coupled with the offense they possess could take them a long way. Therein lies the dilemma.
Carolina Panthers* - Regrettably, an 0-16 Panthers season seems unlikely. Jake Delhomme is healthy again, they've got a good running game with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and when Steve Smith isn't sucker-punching his teammates, he's a pretty damn good receiver. Julius Peppers is in a contract year, meaning he'll be motivated and return to his old form. The Panthers should contend for the division, but at the very least are in the top six in the NFC.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Yes they were in the playoffs a year ago, kind of by default as the rest of the South went into the tank. The Bucs won't have the same luxury this year. Boy, it's a good thing Jon Gruden won that Championship with Tony Dungy's team a few years back, or he'd really be on the hot seat.
Atlanta Falcons - Still a few years away from completely digging out of the mess left behind by Mike Con-Vick-t and Bobby Petrino, but at least headed in the right direction with Matt Ryan. But there's still a lot of damage control to be done.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks* - It would really be a surprise if anyone besides Seattle came out of the West. Funny thing is, they're actually one of the better teams in the NFC that nobody ever talks about.
Arizona Cardinals - Between former MVP Kurt Warner, first round pick Matt Leinart, and stud receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, you'd think Arizona would be a lock for the post-season, a place they haven't been since the Jake Plummer administration. Close, but no cigar. Remember this name - Tim Hightower. And no, he's not the guy from the "Police Academy" movies.
St. Louis Rams - Lots of negative karma surrounding the Rams. Marc Bulger can't seem to stay healthy, and Torry Holt, consistent as he's been, is yet another year older. Steven Jackson held out for most of camp but was rewarded with a new contract. The Rams can rebuild around him, and should start doing so right now.
San Francisco 49ers - J.T. O'Sullivan beat out Alex Smith for the starting quarterback job in San Francisco...Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman think that's pretty jacked up.
AFC East
New England Patriots* - What do 18 wins and one loss get you? If you're the 2007 New England Patriots, it gets you labeled "chokers." It also makes you motivated to prove your worth. Of course, the Patriots won't be undefeated this year. But they're a safe bet to still be playing in January.
New York Jets - Even before they landed Favre, the Jets had reshaped their roster and were looking more like the 10-6 team they were two years ago than the 4-12 club of last season. Favre has everybody in New York talking playoffs.
Buffalo Bills - You know who's hard to gauge? The Bills. Did you realize they were 7-9 last season? Could they be that good again? If so, it will be because of Marshawn Lynch, who is a much better back than I thought he'd be.
Miami Dolphins - When you're 1-15, there's only one way to go. Bill Parcells is tasked with turning the Dolphins around, but this will not be one of his quick-fix jobs.
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers* - For all the hype surrounding the Cleveland Browns this season, its actually the Steelers who will rule the AFC North. Their schedule is brutal no doubt, with the Giants, Colts, Chargers and Cowboys coming to town and trips to Philly, Jacksonville, and New England also on the itinerary. If they can get through that mine field, the playoffs should seem like a walk in the park.
Cleveland Browns* - Call me a skeptic, but I'm still not sold on Derek Anderson. Maybe its because I'm a Notre Dame fan and want to see Brady Quinn in there. Something in my gut tells me Quinn will see the field this season, and not in Week 17 mop up duty.
Cincinnati Bengals - To be honest, I'm not sure why Chad Johnson changed his name to "Chad Javon Ocho Cinco." I can only hope it leads to their other receiver legally changing his name to T.J. Hoochiemama. That's really all I'll be watching the Bengals for this season.
Baltimore Ravens - Injuries to Kyle Boller (on IR with a bad shoulder) and Willis McGahee (recovering from a knee injury) mean rookies Joe Flacco and Ray Rice should figure prominently in the Ravens offense. In the immortal words of Carl Lewis..."Uh-oh!"
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts* - Reports out of Indianapolis indicate that Peyton Manning will be ready to start the season despite missing the entire pre-season recovering from knee surgery. They'd better hope so. If he's 100% and Marvin Harrison comes back and Bob Sanders and Dwight Freeney can both stay healthy, there aren't a lot of teams that can match the Colts' talent.
Jacksonville Jaguars* - The Jaguars are everybody's AFC dark horse team, and they are certainly worthy of consideration. But they're also not without their issues, most of them off the field. Wide receiver Matt Jones got arrested for cocaine possession during the off-season, and recently offensive lineman Richard Collier was shot in an attempted robbery or carjacking. Sometimes the off-field stuff negatively impacts the team. I'm not saying, I'm just saying.
Houston Texans - Still think the Saints and Titans got the better part of the Mario Williams/Reggie Bush.Vince Young draft class of 2006? Criticized for drafting Williams by basically everyone (including yours truly), the Texans have revamped the defense around Williams, and added some offensive firepower in Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson as well. It's a shame they'll be looking up at Indy and Jacksonville.
Tennessee Titans - Another defense first team that can and will frustrate a lot of the offenses they'll face. But if the Titans are going anywhere, Vince Young has to make "the leap." Jeff Fisher is still one of the best coaches in the league, but never gets mentioned in the Bill Belichick-Tony Dungy class.
AFC West
San Diego Chargers - Last year the Chargers earned some measure of redemption by advancing to the AFC Championship game a year after flaming out in the first round. They kept that game with the Patriots surprisingly close even without LaDanian Tomlinson and Philip Rivers playing on a torn ACL. That's how talented the Chargers are.
Denver Broncos - The Broncos are the second banana in what really appears to be a bad division. They won't challenge San Diego and if they finish behind the Chiefs or Raiders, Mike Shanahan should resign on the spot.
Kansas City Chiefs - Overheard at my Fantasy Football draft last night: "Who's Kansas City's second receiver behind Dwayne Bowe?...who the hell is Jeff Webb?" That about sums up the Chiefs this season.
Oakland Raiders - Stop me if you've heard this already, but Darren McFadden looks like he could be this year's Adrian Peterson. That would be music to JaMarcus Russell's ears.
NFC Championship: Philadelphia over Seattle
AFC Championship: San Diego over Indianapolis
Super Bowl XLIII: Philadelphia over San Diego - If you're surprised, you're obviously new to this. Year in and year out, I pick the Eagles to win it all under the "Even a broken clock is right twice a day" philosophy. Just because it hasn't happened in my lifetime doesn't mean it won't.
Most Valuable Player: Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia
Coach of the Year: Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh
Rookie of the Year: Chris Johnson, Tennessee
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