The Week 3 Picks

Match-up: Carolina (+3.5) @ Minnesota
Breakdown: How are the 0-2 Vikings, with Gus Frerotte starting in place of Tavaris Jackson, favored against a 2-0 Panthers team that gets its best player, Steve Smith, back from a two game suspension? Something fishy about this one. Reluctantly, I'll take the Panthers, but I don't feel good about it.
Straight up: Carolina
Against the Spread: Carolina

Match-up: Kansas City (+5.5) @ Atlanta
Breakdown: The Chiefs are starting their third quarterback in three weeks as Tyler Thigpen takes over for Damon Huard, who took over for Brodie Croyle. No telling who gets the nod next week. Len Dawson, maybe?
Straight up: Atlanta
Against the Spread: Atlanta

Match-up: Miami (+12.5) @ New England
Breakdown: I was all set to take the Miami and the points until I heard Dolphins LB Joey Porter bumping his gums about how it should be easy to beat the Patriots and their back up quarterback. Now I think an agitated Patriots team will rally around Matt Cassell and beat Miami by thirty.
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

Match-up: Oakland (+9.5) @ Buffalo
Breakdown: The Bills are out quickly, and with Oakland on tap this week, the Bills look like the best bet to unseat the Brady-less Patriots in the AFC East.
Straight up: Buffalo
Against the Spread: Buffalo

Match-up: Cincinnati (+13.5) @ New York Giants
Breakdown: I have officially given up on the Bengals. Conversely, I continue to believe the Giants are flying under the radar.
Straight up: New York Giants
Against the Spread: New York Giants

Match-up: Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Chicago
Breakdown: Brian Griese will be looking for a measure of revenge against the team that cut him in favor of Kyle Orton.
Straight up: Tampa Bay
Against the Spread: Tampa Bay

Match-up: Houston (+5.0) @ Tennessee
Breakdown: Displaced by Hurricane Ike, the Texans haven't played in two weeks. I'm not sure if that helps them or hurts them, but I've got a feeling the game will be the distraction they need.
Straight up: Houston
Against the Spread: Houston

Match-up: Arizona (+3.0) @ Washington
Breakdown: The NFC East is a collective 6-2 with the only two losses coming within the division. The NFC West, meanwhile, is 3-5 all told, with the Cardinals at 2-0. Needless to say, I'm not sold on the West.
Straight up: Washington
Against the Spread: Washington

Match-up: New Orleans (+5.5) @ Denver
Breakdown: It's funny how football karma tends to work. Given a gift last week against the Chargers, I wouldn't be surprised to see all the breaks go against the Broncos this week. Still, I can't bring myself to take the Saints on the road, even with Brandon Marshall's legal matter coming to light.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

Match-up: Detroit (+4.0) @ San Francisco
Breakdown: Mike Martz was the offensive coordinator in Detroit last season. Now he holds the same post in San Francisco, and he's got a former Lion, J.T. O'Sullivan, running the show.
Straight up: San Francisco
Against the Spread: San Francisco

Match-up: St. Louis (+9.5) @ Seattle
Breakdown: The receiving corps in Seattle is so thin, they broke Koren Robinson out of incarceration and traded for Keary Colbert, and they'll both see significant playing time this week. Even worse, I think St. Louis is so bad that Seattle still wins the game.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: St. Louis

Match-up: Pittsburgh (+3.5) @ Philadelphia
Breakdown: All the reports about the Steelers not winning in Philly since 1965 are kind of misleading, since the teams don't play each other every year. I wouldn't mind seeing Ben Roethlisberger introduced to the Lincoln Financial Field turf, though.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

Match-up: Jacksonville (+5.0) @ Indianapolis
Breakdown: Both teams could use a win in this division tilt. But both teams have offensive line issues, with the Colts down three starters and the Jaguars two. With patchwork lines negatively affecting the running games, you've got to go with the better passing attack.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

Match-up: Cleveland (+2.5) @ Baltimore
Breakdown: One of these teams has to win to keep the Steelers within sight in the AFC North. Derek Anderson may have to win it to keep his job.
Straight up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland

Match-up: Dallas (-3.0) @ Green Bay
Breakdown: Maybe its just me, but I was actually encouraged by Dallas' defense on Monday. There's no way that defense is winning a Super Bowl. Or beating the Packers.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

Match-up: New York Jets (+9.0) @ San Diego
Breakdown: Brett Favre called this one a "Must Win." And it is - for the Chargers.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: New York Jets

Week 2: 7-8-0 (.467); 8-6-1 (.571)
2008-09 Season: 16-15-0 (.516); 17-13-1 (.567)
Lifetime: 982-581-1 (..627); 779-757-31 (.507)