The Week 1 Picks

In the middle of the 2001-02 NFL Season, I stumbled across a column in USA Today where a guy named Pete O'Brien predicted that weekend's games. I disagreed with most of his picks, so I kept track of my picks and staged my own little competition with this "Expert" for the remainder of the season. Needless to say, I crushed him. I've been picking every game every week ever since.

So now, I enter my seventh season of publishing my own "Expert" picks, and do so with the following disclaimers:

1. The picks are for entertainment purposes only. If you choose to wager money or anything else of value based on my predictions, I am not responsible.

2. If, on the other hand, you profit from my prognostication, I will accept kick-backs.

3. There are no gimmicks with my picks. I don't have a "Lock of the Week," or an "Upset Special." I feel all of my picks are locks, and will only pick an upset if I feel one is justified.

4. I will ALWAYS pick the Philadelphia Eagles to win and cover, regardless of opponent, location, or spread. It's just what I do.

5. Conversely, I will NEVER pick the Dallas Cowboys to win or cover, regardless of opponent, location, or spread.

The 2008-09 campaign opened on a positive note, with the Giants defeating the Redskins on Thursday and covering the four-point spread. Without further ado, here are the rest of the Week 1 Picks:

Match-up: St. Louis (+7.5) @ Philadelphia
Breakdown: A healthy Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook should be enough to compensate for a depleted wide receiver corps.
Straight up: Philadelphia
Against the Spread: Philadelphia

Match-up: Houston (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh
Breakdown: Not surprisingly, the Steelers are 3-0 in their last three season openers. Make that 4-0.
Straight up: Pittsburgh
Against the Spread: Pittsburgh

Match-up: Detroit (-3.0) @ Atlanta
Breakdown: Surprisingly, the Lions are also 3-0 in their last three openers.
Straight up: Detroit
Against the Spread: Detroit

Match-up: Seattle (+1.0) @ Buffalo
Breakdown: I wavered on this game quite a bit. On one hand, I like Buffalo because Matt Hasselbeck has been dealing with a bad back, and the Seahawks don’t have a good history on the road. But something in my gut kept telling me to take Seattle, and more often than not I tend to trust my gut.
Straight up: Seattle
Against the Spread: Seattle

Match-up: Cincinnati (-1.5) @ Baltimore
Breakdown: I’m guessing Ocho CInco isn’t hurt as bad as originally expected. And he always seems to play his best against the division-rival Ravens.
Straight up: Cincinnati
Against the Spread: Cincinnati

Match-up: Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Tennessee
Breakdown: Tom Brady led the league in passer rating last year, Ben Roethlisberger was second. Know who was third? Peyton Manning? Nope. Tony Romo? Try again. Rex Grossman? No, seriously. It was David Garrard. No wonder everyone loves the Jaguars this season.
Straight up: Jacksonville
Against the Spread: Jacksonville

Match-up: New York Jets (-3.0) @ Miami
Breakdown: The Jets are 7-1 in their last eight games against Miami, none of them with a Hall of Famer like Brett Favre under center.
Straight up: New York Jets
Against the Spread: New York Jets

Match-up: Kansas City (Off) @ New England
Breakdown: Did you really expect Tom Brady to miss a game? Would this one be closer if he didn’t?
Straight up: New England
Against the Spread: New England

Match-up: Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ New Orleans
Breakdown: The Saints have some experience dealing with displacement due to hurricanes. I don’t think they’ll be affected by Gustav, which just passed through Louisiana.
Straight up: New Orleans
Against the Spread: New Orleans

Match-up: Carolina (+9.0) @ San Diego
Breakdown: After learning that two of San Diego’s starting offensive linemen were going to miss this game, I leaned a little more towards Carolina, at least to keep it close. But without Steve Smith, I don’t see the Panthers winning this game.
Straight up: San Diego
Against the Spread: San Diego

Match-up: Arizona (-2.5) @ San Francisco
Breakdown: It’s the dawn of the J.T. O’Sullivan era in San Francisco. Can you feel the excitement? Me neither.
Straight up: Arizona
Against the Spread: Arizona

Match-up: Dallas (-5.5) @ Cleveland
Breakdown: Last time T.O. played in Cleveland, they hung a sign that read “T.O. has B.O.” Hopefully there’s a rhyming sign for Tony Romo this week.
Straight up: Cleveland
Against the Spread: Cleveland

Match-up: Chicago (+9.5) @ Indianapolis
Breakdown: Peyton Manning is fine. Marvin Harrison is fine. Dwight Freeney and Bob Sanders are fine. With that in mind, I’d say the Colts will be fine.
Straight up: Indianapolis
Against the Spread: Indianapolis

Match-up: Minnesota (+2.5) @ Green Bay
Breakdown: Not sure if you heard or not, but Brett Favre doesn’t play in Green Bay anymore, and this is the first start in Aaron Rodgers’ career.
Straight up: Green Bay
Against the Spread: Green Bay

Match-up: Denver (-3.0) @ Oakland
Breakdown: In what may be the longest-term rebuilding program in NFL history, the Raiders are 19-61 in their last five seasons. There actually are some pieces in place, but the puzzle is still incomplete.
Straight up: Denver
Against the Spread: Denver

Week 1: 1-0-0 (1.000); 1-0-0 (1.000)
2008-09 Season: 1-0-0 (1.000); 1-0-0 (1.000)
Lifetime: 967-569-1 (.630); 763-744-30 (.506)